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While the influence of these factors varies geographically as a function of both biophysical and human–environment interactions, climate variability expressed through fuel dryness is the dominant interannual driver of macroscale burned area across fuel-rich biomes in the western US and globe 7. Several anthropogenic factors underpin growing wildland fire area, including historically high fuel loads due to a century of fire suppression and outlawing of Indigenous burning less direct suppression tactics to support firefighter safety, and increased fuel aridity due to human-caused climate change 3, 4, 5, 6. The annual area burned by forest fires in the western United States (US) has increased ten-fold over the past half-century 1, punctuated by the record 2020 western US fire season that produced widespread negative effects 2. Fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks are unlikely to strongly constrain the profound climate-driven broad-scale increases in forest-fire area by the mid-21st century, highlighting the need for proactive adaptation to increased western US forest-fire impacts. Even models with strong feedbacks project increasing interannual variability in forest-fire area and more than a two-fold increase in the likelihood of years exceeding the 2020 fire season. Fire-fuel feedbacks only modestly attenuate the projected increase in forest-fire area. Assuming constant fuels, climate–fire models project a doubling of forest-fire area compared to 1991–2020. Here, we test how fire-fuel feedbacks moderate near-term (2021–2050) climate-driven increases in forest-fire area across the western US. As fires remove fuels for subsequent fires, feedbacks may impose constraints on the otherwise climate-driven trend of increasing forest-fire area. Escalating burned area in western US forests punctuated by the 2020 fire season has heightened the need to explore near-term macroscale forest-fire area trajectories. This means you get highly accurate images when converting email to image documents such as PDF. Hundreds of non-standard email formatting exceptions have been identified and individually included in the code, enabling our MailDex to render emails that other products can’t.
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